My bets and expected goals for Serie A, Week 28

Blog about Footbal Analyze and Betting

Last week, there were only 3 matches played, so there was not much place to test my new model and expected goals. The model still made a nice profit thanks to AS Roma wins in Neapol. Hopefully, no more bad news this week and we can test model on all matches. There is a lot of interesting matches and value bet.

My expected goals


SerieA week 28 expected goals

SerieA week 28 expected goals

I will not play Fiorentina. Just from numbers, it seems like a nice value. But we can´t forecast the impact of last week and death of Astori. Fiorentina players could be in “all for one, one for all” mode and play like never before for their dead captain. Or they could be still depressed and play like a ghost. It´s low odds bet anyway, so no big deal.

I avoid AC Milano as well. No much value there and AC is in a middle of European League battle against Arsenal, so there could be some fatigue problems, substitutions etc. I set AC ranking lower and accord my numbers a little bit (it´s hard to do it exactly), but still, this bet is better left behind. I believed AC vs Arsenal in a first game, but it was disappointing performance and 0:2 loss.

Even with these 2 matches left behind, there is still a lot of interesting odds. Most of them on visitors, as there are match-ups of good teams playing away with weak home opposition. And nice odds. We bet on Bologna last week but this time it´s no reason to stay with this team. Chievo is playing very bad and even when this a is derby, Verona should be favorite there. There is a lot of injuries in Verona squad, but even then, a huge value in a bet for a home win.

So Verona, Atalanta, Lazio, Sampdoria, Sassuolo a Neapol will be my bets for this weekend. Odds for Juventus seems a little bit too low, but probably no play there.